Tuesday started out as a typical day. I got up, turned on my computer, but then things took a bit of a turn when I saw that the Oscar nominations were due at any time. I was too anxious to put off finding out the news until after work, so I waited to watch the list aired live on TV. I usually build some procrastination time into my morning routine for instances like this, and always set my alarm a little early.
In a perfect world, it would be my job to be reporting on this breaking news straight from Park City (as Sundance is going on right now) or Hollywood. Then the Coen Brothers would be waiting in line for me to talk about their next project and James Franco would share all his thoughts about hosting the big show between being a famous actor, going to school, and writing books.
I’ve got to start somewhere, so here are some predictions about which nominees could win and those that actually should.
I am only three films away from clearing out the best picture list, and need to see 127 Hours, The King’s Speech and Toy Story 3. I’d also like to check out Winter’s Bone again, and my preference would be for True Grit to take home the award. I liked The Social Network overall and given all the hype it will probably be between that and The King’s Speech. The third runner up will probably be The Kids are All Right. Inception should be up there, but will get robbed of the award. And, The Fighter should be more of a contender than it probably will be. Just writing about this, the anticipation of waiting for the envelope to open during the Oscars is setting in. I am not sure where Black Swan will fit in, but think it or Winter’s Bone would be the surprise award winners of the night.
I rank the 10 films, as far as their likelihood to win, as 10) Toy Story 3; 9) Inception; 8) 127 Hours; 7) The Fighter; 6) Winter’s Bone; 5) Black Swan; 4) The Kids are All Right; 3) True Grit; 2) The King’s Speech; 1) The Social Network.
I am overall pleased with the actor and actress nods, but think Matt Damon should be in the supporting role ranks for True Grit. Get Low didn’t get any mention by the Academy and Robert Duvall should be in the best actor category for his performance.
As with best picture, I think best actor will be between The Social Network with Jesse Eisenberg and The King’s Speech with Colin Firth. I’d like it to go to Jeff Bridges for True Grit or, from what I’ve heard about 127 Hours, James Franco.I just don’t think Eisenberg’s career is seasoned enough for him to be deserving of the Oscar and his Social Network role doesn’t set him above the rest.
Lead actress will, and should go to Natalie Portman for Black Swan. My second choice would be Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole. I’ve read about the extensive process and time it took to make Blue Valentine, so Michelle Williams is deserving even thought I haven’t seen her work.
I expect the trend will continue from the Golden Globes with Christian Bale taking home the statue for best supporting actor for The Fighter. Hailee Steinfeld is most deserving in the supporting actress category. The only other film I’ve seen of actresses in the category is The Fighter and Amy Adams and Melissa Leo are nominated. I’d go with Amy Adams in that case and she is my second pick.
As Oscar season continues, I also want to see Animal Kingdom, Blue Valentine and at least make my way into the foreign film category with Biutiful and to documentaries with Exit Through the Gift Shop.
That rounds out the main categories, but I’ve printed my nomination list and will do as much viewing research as possible before Feb. 27.
Here’s the full list of nominees as well as links to other film awards going on right now: